PENERAPAN METODE SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE UNTUK PERAMALAN PENJUALAN MAINAN ANAK

Abstract

Kids toys will never die, but as a shop owner must be observant to see market share so
as not to suffer losses, there will be a loss if the rotation of goods is not balanced between the
stock of goods with the amount of goods sold. This not only requires reliability and instinct. It
will be very helpful for shopkeepers if forecasting is done in buying goods for stock, so the stock
will not accumulate much but only buy a few items whose number of turn over is not much
otherwise it will buy lots of goods whose turnover is very fast and many. Forecasting method used
is Single Moving Average by taking orange puzzle sales data from January 2018 to June 2019
with a value of 6,7,8 and 9 which will be used as calculation data in the SMA method, determine
the results of historical data processing using the SMA method, calculate errors from the results
of predictions using the MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation), MSE (Mean Square Error) and MAPE
(mean absolute percentage error) methods, the final results are obtained after going through the
process of calculating predictions and calculating errors. The results of this study obtained a
value of movement 9 which has good accuracy (the smallest error rate). Namely MAD of 4.23457,
MAPE of 4.2638 and MSE 30.166 with the results of forecasting 96 pcs of orange puzzle sales in
July 2019.
Keywords—Kids Toys, Forecasting, SMA, MAD, MSE, MAPE